「英中对照」ABC首席经济学家：数据中心热潮下建筑业赢家与输家分化扩大

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The gulf between the winners and losers in the construction industry is getting wider.

Projects valued at more than $1 billion have been consuming the bulk of cash spent on nonresidential construction this year. Many of those are massive data center projects, with Associated Builders and Contractors pegging roughly one in six firms currently under contract to work on those builds. That’s the highest proportion on record.

“Things have become more extreme,” said Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist. “Parts of the economy that were doing well before are doing even better now, and parts of the economy that were challenged, are even more challenged now.”

Basu discussed the tale of two construction industries during an Oct. 7 Construction Executive economic forecast webinar. Here are three takeaways from the presentation.

Construction competition is heating up

Contractors are facing more competition today for available projects.

During a recent visit to Jackson, Mississippi, Basu said contractors told him they were seeing considerably more bidders on projects than in previous years. Jobs that once attracted two to four competing bids now draw as many as 12 to 16, he said.

The increased competition, coupled with higher financing costs, could push contractors to lower their bids to secure work. The move would put even more pressure on profit margins.

About 32% of attendees surveyed during the October webinar expect their profit margins to decline over the next 12 months, up from 26% in July. The share of contractors expecting margins to stay the same also fell from 42% to 34%.

“There is more concern about demand for construction,” said Basu. “There’s a higher proportion of firms that have seen their backlog fall considerably.”

Webinar attendees pinpointed weaker demand in portions of the nonresidential construction market. About 21% identified insufficient demand for construction services as the top challenge, up from 19% from July. Another 17% cited tighter project financing conditions, compared with 13% previously.

“If you’re working on data center projects, maybe you don’t care so much because you can just pass along these costs, these hyperscalers who don’t seem so cost sensitive,” said Basu. “But hotel developers, commercial developers, let’s say retail space or warehouse developers, they are really cost sensitive.”

Little relief for construction costs

Contractors will need to prepare for another year of elevated construction costs, said Basu.

Materials prices have increased roughly 8% to 9% over the past year, while labor costs also jumped about 4% to 6% annually, according to the webinar.

Opening the Strait of Hormuz could ease pressure on oil prices and other construction inputs. However, Basu does not expect a substantial drop in materials prices next year, even if the conflict with Iran were to end.

“I think the Trump administration is going to double down on tariffs in 2027,” Basu said. “It means that materials prices will not get much relief because, of course, some of the highest tariffs fall upon key construction materials — steel, copper.”

At the same time, Basu does not anticipate another mass increase next year, in part because buyers can only absorb so much additional cost, he said.

“I don’t think materials prices are going to fall dramatically in 2027 vis-à-vis where they are today,” said Basu. “But they’re not going to rise sharply either, because at some point people just can’t afford to buy these inputs anymore.”

Growth for 2027

Do not expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession next year, said Basu.

Strong spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and energy projects should still power economic activity in 2027. Federal deficit spending and business investment incentives could also help sustain growth, he added.

Nevertheless, Basu warned the economy is becoming increasingly dependent on a handful of industries and wealthier households. The dynamic is leaving activity vulnerable if tech companies decide to pull back on AI-related projects.

A slowdown in investment would weaken corporate earnings and stock market performance, which in turn would dent consumer spending and economic strength, he said.

“It will not take much for that to unravel,” said Basu. “All you need is a couple of hyperscalers to say, ‘we’re not going to spend as much on artificial intelligence, we’re going to cut back.’”