「英中对照」ABC首席经济学家：数据中心热潮下建筑业赢家与输家分化扩大

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The gulf between the winners and losers in the construction industry is getting wider.建筑行业中赢家与输家之间的差距正在不断扩大。

Projects valued at more than $1 billion have been consuming the bulk of cash spent on nonresidential construction this year. Many of those are massive data center projects, with Associated Builders and Contractors pegging roughly one in six firms currently under contract to work on those builds. That’s the highest proportion on record.价值超过10亿美元的项目已经消耗了今年非住宅建筑支出的大部分资金。其中许多是大型数据中心项目，据Associated Builders and Contractors（ABC）估计，目前约有六分之一的公司签约参与此类项目建设。这一比例是有记录以来的最高水平。

“Things have become more extreme,” said Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist. “Parts of the economy that were doing well before are doing even better now, and parts of the economy that were challenged, are even more challenged now.”“情况变得更加极端了，”ABC首席经济学家Anirban Basu表示，“此前表现良好的经济领域现在表现更好了，而此前面临挑战的领域现在面临的挑战更大了。”

Basu discussed the tale of two construction industries during an Oct. 7 Construction Executive economic forecast webinar. Here are three takeaways from the presentation.Basu在10月7日Construction Executive经济预测网络研讨会上探讨了两种截然不同的建筑行业现状。以下是本次演讲的三个要点。

Construction competition is heating up建筑行业竞争正在加剧

Contractors are facing more competition today for available projects.如今，承包商在争夺可用项目时面临着更激烈的竞争。

During a recent visit to Jackson, Mississippi, Basu said contractors told him they were seeing considerably more bidders on projects than in previous years. Jobs that once attracted two to four competing bids now draw as many as 12 to 16, he said.Basu表示，在最近访问密西西比州杰克逊市期间，承包商告诉他，他们看到的项目竞标者数量较往年大幅增加。他说，过去只吸引两到四家竞标的项目，现在吸引的竞标者多达12到16家。

The increased competition, coupled with higher financing costs, could push contractors to lower their bids to secure work. The move would put even more pressure on profit margins.竞争加剧，再加上融资成本上升，可能迫使承包商降低报价以争取项目。此举将给利润率带来更大压力。

About 32% of attendees surveyed during the October webinar expect their profit margins to decline over the next 12 months, up from 26% in July. The share of contractors expecting margins to stay the same also fell from 42% to 34%.在10月网络研讨会接受调查的与会者中，约32%预计未来12个月利润率将下降，高于7月的26%。预计利润率保持不变的承包商比例也从42%降至34%。

“There is more concern about demand for construction,” said Basu. “There’s a higher proportion of firms that have seen their backlog fall considerably.”“人们对建筑需求的担忧有所增加，”Basu说，“在手订单大幅缩减的公司比例更高了。”

Webinar attendees pinpointed weaker demand in portions of the nonresidential construction market. About 21% identified insufficient demand for construction services as the top challenge, up from 19% from July. Another 17% cited tighter project financing conditions, compared with 13% previously.参加网络研讨会的听众指出，非住宅建筑市场的部分领域需求疲软。约21%的受访者认为建筑服务需求不足是首要挑战，高于7月的19%。另有17%的受访者提到项目融资条件收紧，而此前这一比例为13%。

“If you’re working on data center projects, maybe you don’t care so much because you can just pass along these costs, these hyperscalers who don’t seem so cost sensitive,” said Basu. “But hotel developers, commercial developers, let’s say retail space or warehouse developers, they are really cost sensitive.”“如果你在承接数据中心项目，也许你不会太在意，因为你可以把这些成本转嫁给那些似乎对成本不那么敏感的超大规模云服务商，”Basu说。“但酒店开发商、商业开发商，比如零售空间或仓库开发商，他们对成本非常敏感。”

Little relief for construction costs建筑成本难见缓解

Contractors will need to prepare for another year of elevated construction costs, said Basu.Basu表示，承包商需要为又一年的高建筑成本做好准备。

Materials prices have increased roughly 8% to 9% over the past year, while labor costs also jumped about 4% to 6% annually, according to the webinar.根据该网络研讨会，过去一年材料价格上涨约8%至9%，而劳动力成本每年也上涨约4%至6%。

Opening the Strait of Hormuz could ease pressure on oil prices and other construction inputs. However, Basu does not expect a substantial drop in materials prices next year, even if the conflict with Iran were to end.开放霍尔木兹海峡可能会缓解油价及其他建筑投入品的压力。然而，Basu预计，即使与伊朗的冲突结束，明年材料价格也不会大幅下降。

“I think the Trump administration is going to double down on tariffs in 2027,” Basu said. “It means that materials prices will not get much relief because, of course, some of the highest tariffs fall upon key construction materials — steel, copper.”“我认为特朗普政府将在2027年加倍加征关税，”Basu说。“这意味着材料价格不会得到多少缓解，因为当然，一些最高的关税落在了关键建筑材料上——钢铁、铜。”

At the same time, Basu does not anticipate another mass increase next year, in part because buyers can only absorb so much additional cost, he said.与此同时，Basu预计明年不会再次出现大规模涨价，部分原因是买家能够吸收的额外成本是有限的，他说。

“I don’t think materials prices are going to fall dramatically in 2027 vis-à-vis where they are today,” said Basu. “But they’re not going to rise sharply either, because at some point people just can’t afford to buy these inputs anymore.”“我认为2027年材料价格相较于今天的水平不会大幅下跌，”Basu说。“但它们也不会大幅上涨，因为在某个时候，人们就再也买不起这些投入品了。”

Growth for 20272027年的增长

Do not expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession next year, said Basu.Basu表示，不要指望美国经济明年会陷入衰退。

Strong spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and energy projects should still power economic activity in 2027. Federal deficit spending and business investment incentives could also help sustain growth, he added.对人工智能基础设施和能源项目的强劲支出，仍应在2027年为经济活动提供动力。他补充说，联邦赤字支出和商业投资激励措施也可能有助于维持增长。

Nevertheless, Basu warned the economy is becoming increasingly dependent on a handful of industries and wealthier households. The dynamic is leaving activity vulnerable if tech companies decide to pull back on AI-related projects.尽管如此，Basu 警告称，经济正变得越来越依赖少数几个行业和较富裕的家庭。这种格局使得一旦科技公司决定缩减人工智能相关项目，经济活动就会变得脆弱。

A slowdown in investment would weaken corporate earnings and stock market performance, which in turn would dent consumer spending and economic strength, he said.他表示，投资放缓将削弱企业盈利和股市表现，进而损害消费者支出和经济实力。

“It will not take much for that to unravel,” said Basu. “All you need is a couple of hyperscalers to say, ‘we’re not going to spend as much on artificial intelligence, we’re going to cut back.’”“这种情况要瓦解并不需要太多条件，”Basu 说。“只需要有几家超大规模数据中心运营商说，‘我们不打算在人工智能上投入那么多了，我们要削减开支。’”