「英中对照」CIBSE Journal技术文章：重新思考建筑对极端气候事件的韧性

Designing a building that complies with today’s UK Building Regulations is no guarantee that it will be fit to withstand future climate extremes.设计符合当今英国《建筑法规》的建筑，并不能保证它足以承受未来的极端气候。

In the UK, new buildings are designed to comply with energy efficiency standards and overheating requirements. However, compliance checks evaluate a building against normal summer conditions, not climate extremes, so meeting the requirements of Building Regulations doesn’t necessarily mean buildings are future-proofed against a changing climate. 在英国，新建筑的设计需符合能效标准和过热要求。然而，合规检查是依据正常夏季条件而非极端气候来评估 建筑，因此满足《建筑法规》要求并不一定意味着建筑已针对不断变化的气候做到面向未来。

Regulations also assume that building systems run continuously, without interruption. They do not account for Grid failures or power outages during severe heatwaves.法规还假设建筑系统持续运行、不中断，未考虑严重热浪期间的电网故障或停电。

Increasingly extreme weather, ageing Grid infrastructure and more frequent peak-demand spikes are putting unprecedented pressure on distribution networks. 日益极端的天气、老化的电网基础设施以及更频繁的峰值需求尖峰，正给配电网络带来前所未有的压力。

The instability of the Grid means air conditioning (AC) cannot be regarded as a silver bullet; widespread AC use risks overloading electricity networks during extreme heat.电网的不稳定性意味着空调（AC）不能被视为灵丹妙药；在极端高温期间广泛使用空调有导致电力网络过载的风险。

Figure 1: Conceptual resilience curve of indoor temperature during heatwave and/or power outage图1：热浪和/或停电期间室内温度的概念韧性曲线

A recently published critical review¹ on thermal resilience says services should be stress-tested against worst-case scenarios – such as a heatwave occurring at the same time as a power outage – to ensure occupants remain safe when mechanical cooling fails. 最近发表的一篇关于热韧性的批判性综述¹ 指出，应对建筑设备系统进行最坏情景压力测试——例如热浪与停电同时发生——以确保机械制冷失效时居住者仍保持安全。

Assessing thermal resilience requires looking at how indoor environments respond when a disruptive event is combined with a power outage. By adapting the CIBSE TM52 framework (Figure 1), an internal temperature profile can be mapped against the duration of overheating (hours of exceedance), severity (daily weighted exceedance) and upper temperature limits.评估热韧性需要考察破坏性事件与停电叠加时室内环境的响应方式。通过 调整 CIBSE TM52 框架（图1），可以对照过热持续时间（超标小时数）、严重程度（每日加权超标值）和温度上限绘制内部温度曲线。

When facing a compound scenario – heatwave and outage – safety-based thresholds may be more appropriate than comfort-based ones. The concept can be applied in summer and winter under disruptive events: in summer, it indicates how long safe indoor conditions can be maintained without active cooling, while, in winter, it reflects how long a building can remain habitable when heating is unavailable. 面对复合情景——热浪与停电——基于安全的阈值可能比基于舒适度的阈值更合适。该概念可用于夏季和冬季的破坏性事件：在夏季，它表明无主动制冷时安全室内条件可维持多久；在冬季，它反映无法供暖时建筑可保持宜居多久。

This challenges the simplistic design approach of relying solely on active systems and additional cooling capacity to address overheating. Instead, it reinforces a passive-first strategy, such as better-performing building fabric, including improved insulation to reduce heat loss in winter and greater thermal mass to buffer indoor temperature fluctuations during extreme conditions.这挑战了仅依靠主动系统和额外制冷容量来解决过热问题的简单化设计方法。相反，它强化了被动优先策略，例如性能更佳的建筑围护结构，包括改进保温以减少冬季热量损失，以及更大的热质量以在极端条件下缓冲室内温度波动。

This metric could also serve as a proxy energy flexibility indicator that reflects a building’s passive capacity to reduce energy demand when the Grid is under stress or when tariffs are high.该指标还可充当能源灵活性的代理指标，反映在电网承压或电价较高时建筑减少能源需求的被动能力。

Table 1: Fabric properties of the three building cases (dwelling)表1：三个建筑案例（住宅）的围护结构特性

The recovery time or recovery rate can provide another perspective on a building’s ability to respond to extreme events, by indicating how quickly conditions can return to a safe or acceptable range.恢复时间或恢复率可通过表明状况能够多快恢复至安全或可接受范围，为建筑应对极端事件的能力提供另一个视角。

Figure 1 also shows that resilient and non-resilient buildings perform differently during disruptive events: a resilient building has a greater capacity to absorb shocks, recovers more quickly and has a shorter window of danger. 图1还显示，有韧性和无韧性的建筑在破坏性事件中的表现不同：有韧性的建筑具有更强的冲击吸收能力，恢复更快，且危险窗口更短。

This distinction can be further illustrated through modelling results for a typical dwelling, with three different envelope types, under extreme summer and winter conditions during a 24-hour power outage (Table 2).通过一栋 典型住宅在24小时停电期间、夏季和冬季极端条件下采用三种不同围护结构类型的模拟结果，可以进一步说明这一区别（表2）。

Table 2: Performance of typical dwelling under extreme conditions with 24-hour power outage表2：24小时停电情况下典型住宅在极端条件下的性能

The ‘good’ case represents a well-insulated dwelling designed in line with the LETI net zero recommendations and incorporating high thermal mass; the ‘typical’ case reflects the predominant characteristics of English housing stock; and the ‘poor’ case represents a lightweight, uninsulated envelope. The fabric property inputs are shown in Table 1, with a maximum ventilation rate of 5 ACH applied to all cases.“良好”案例代表按照LETI净零建议设计并采用高热质的保温良好住宅；“典型”案例反映英格兰住宅存量的主要特征；“较差”案例则代表轻质、无保温的围护结构。围护结构特性输入见表 1，所有案例均采用5 ACH的最大通风率。

Under future extreme summer conditions, free-running dwellings will be at risk of severe overheating, and active cooling measures may need to be considered. When a power outage occurs, however, substantial differences emerge between the three design cases: the poor-performing dwelling quickly enters unsafe conditions, while the good-performing dwelling is able to buffer indoor temperature rise and avoid unsafe conditions. 在未来夏季极端条件下，自然运行住宅存在严重过热风险，可能需要考虑主动供冷措施。但停电发生时，三种设计案例之间出现显著差异：性能较差的住宅很快进入不安全状态，而性能良好的住宅能够缓冲室内温度上升并避免不安全状态。

A similar pattern is observed during a winter cold snap with power outage, when the good-performing dwelling is able to maintain comfortable conditions for a much longer period (Table 2). 在冬季寒潮伴随停电期间可观察到类似规律：性能良好的住宅能够在更长时间内维持舒适状态（表2）。

Extreme weather is part of a broader, unpredictable trend that requires a robust risk assessment framework. Current weather datasets are often too conservative – recent weather has already hit levels predicted for 2050. With the release of new CIBSE weather files, designers can test building performance under future conditions. 极端天气是更广泛、不可预测趋势的一部分，需要稳健的风险评估框架。当前气象数据集往往过于保守——近期天气已达到针对2050年预测的水平。随着新版CIBSE气象文件发布，设计人员可在未来条件下测试建筑性能。

Resilience assessment can move beyond a simple pass/fail indicator of overheating towards an approach that translates complex risk scenarios into a clearer indication of how buildings perform in extreme conditions. Such an approach could show whether a building is able to remain safe and functional in 2080, or withstand heatwaves and power outages of varying severity. 韧性评估可以超越简单的过热合格/不合格指标，转而采用一种将复杂风险情景转化为更清晰指示的方法，说明建筑在极端条件下的性能表现。这种方法可显示建筑到2080年能否保持安全和功能，或能否承受不同严重程度的热浪和停电。

Resilience can be communicated through comparable evidence, helping to reduce uncertainty around climate risk and, potentially, informing insurance, financing and investment decisions. There is potential for a rating framework, which could indicate the level of building resilience in an accessible way. 可通过可比证据传达韧性，帮助减少围绕气候风险的不确定性，并有可能为保险、融资和投资决策提供信息。建立评级框架具有潜力，能够以易于理解的方式表明建筑韧性水平。

About the author
Yingyue Li is a paper co-author and PhD student in energy resilience and the built environment at UCL作者简介
Yingyue Li是论文合著者，现为UCL能源韧性与建筑环境方向博士生

References:参考文献：

¹ Li Y, Tsouknida E, Collins T, Bateson A, Tang R, Burman E. (2026) Thermal resilience in the built environment: A critical review. Sustainable Cities and Society. bit.ly/CJthre26¹ Li Y, Tsouknida E, Collins T, Bateson A, Tang R, Burman E.（2026）建筑环境热韧性：批判性综述。Sustainable Cities and Society. bit.ly/CJthre26

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